Importance of Blackjack Odds – Complete Guide 2020

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James Taylor

Our priority in CasinoNow Canada is to guarantee locals an excellent experience playing online casinos. Our tests & reviews are always unbiased. Sometimes an online casino is 100% convincing and we decide to partner with it. However, this does not affect the objectivity of our assessment.

Blackjack true odds

If you were curious about the game of blackjack, but have never gotten around to learning a proper casino blackjack strategy, including the importance of blackjack odds – then you have come to the right place. Our CasinoNow experts have dedicated a big portion of their time and a lot of effort to provide for you the rundown of the science of blackjack – the probability, return to player and house edge.

Blackjack is the card game available in every reputable online casino for Canadian players – and one of the reasons why this is the case is that it involves skill, as knowledge of blackjack statistics, blackjack probability, and blackjack odds can turn the tables around in your favor. If you know your math, then you can dramatically improve your odds of making blackjack profits in the long run – and vice versa. We have also created a helpful blackjack odds table comparing the probabilities and odds when it comes to making certain moves in blackjack. So, if you’re interested in learning more – feel free to read the rest of our review of the subject.

So, if you ever want to play a solid, free online blackjack game – feel free to consult our list above. It can be difficult to choose the best blackjack game in the Canadian online casinos – so our CasinoNow experts have done the heavy lifting for you and selected only the best of the best.

List of the Best Online Casinos in Canada with Blackjack

We have already created and shown a table to you detailing some of the best blackjack games on the internet. But what about some of the best online casinos in Canada? Well, the CasinoNow experts have researched and analyzed this subject as well. Below you will find a table of the top most popular casinos in Canada that feature the game of blackjack.

1 Jackpot City /wp-content/plugins/supernova20/img/images/inner_flag_wrap_alt
Jackpot City
5.0
Progressive Jackpots
Deposit Method (29)
  • logo Visa
  • logo Mastercard
  • logo Skrill
  • logo iDebit
  • logo Trustly
  • logo Neteller
  • Payout96,86%
  • Payout Speed2-3 Days
  • Min/Max deposit€10 - €4000
5.0
C$1600
Deposit Method (29)
  • logo Visa
  • logo Mastercard
  • logo Skrill
  • logo iDebit
  • logo Trustly
  • logo Neteller
2 Spin Casino /wp-content/plugins/supernova20/img/images/inner_flag_wrap_alt
Spin Casino
5.0
Stylish Game Design
Deposit Method (10)
  • logo Neteller
  • logo Skrill
  • logo Visa
  • logo Mastercard
  • logo Paysafe Card
  • logo Bank Wire Transfer
  • Payout97,59%
  • Payout Speed1-3 Days
  • Min/Max deposit€10 - €5000
5.0
C$1000
Deposit Method (10)
  • logo Neteller
  • logo Skrill
  • logo Visa
  • logo Mastercard
  • logo Paysafe Card
  • logo Bank Wire Transfer
3 All Slots Casino /wp-content/plugins/supernova20/img/images/inner_flag_wrap_alt
All Slots Casino
4.9
Generous Bonus
Deposit Method (14)
  • logo Visa
  • logo Mastercard
  • logo Neteller
  • logo Skrill
  • logo Maestro
  • logo Abaqoos
  • Payout96%
  • Payout Speed1-3 Days
  • Min/Max deposit€10 - €5000
4.9
€1500
Deposit Method (14)
  • logo Visa
  • logo Mastercard
  • logo Neteller
  • logo Skrill
  • logo Maestro
  • logo Abaqoos
4 Betway /wp-content/plugins/supernova20/img/images/inner_flag_wrap_alt
Betway
4.7
  • Payout96,05%
  • Payout Speed2-3 Days
  • Min/Max deposit€10 - €5000
4.7
$1000
5 NightRush /wp-content/plugins/supernova20/img/images/inner_flag_wrap_alt
NightRush
4.6
  • Payout93,19%
  • Payout Speed1 Days
  • Min/Max deposit€10 - €7500
4.6
C$1000
6 Casino Cruise /wp-content/plugins/supernova20/img/images/inner_flag_wrap_alt
Casino Cruise
4.6
  • Payout96,59%
  • Payout Speed2-3 Days
  • Min/Max deposit€10 - €5000
4.6
C$1000
7 888 Casino /wp-content/plugins/supernova20/img/images/inner_flag_wrap_alt
888 Casino
4.4
  • Payout97,64%
  • Payout Speed2-4 Days
  • Min/Max deposit€10 - No limit
8 Dunder /wp-content/plugins/supernova20/img/images/inner_flag_wrap_alt
Dunder
4.4
  • Payout97,85%
  • Payout Speed1-2 Days
  • Min/Max deposit€10 - €5000
4.4
$600 + 200 FS
9 Leovegas /wp-content/plugins/supernova20/img/images/inner_flag_wrap_alt
Leovegas
4.3
  • Payout97,63%
  • Payout Speed1-5 Days
  • Min/Max deposit€10 - €10000
4.3
$1000
10 Mr Green /wp-content/plugins/supernova20/img/images/inner_flag_wrap_alt
Mr Green
4.0
  • Payout96%
  • Payout Speed0-5 Days
  • Min/Max deposit€10 - No limit
4.0
$1200 + 200 FS

All of the casinos above have a big variety of blackjack games available to the players. If you want to try and play some of the best versions of the game that are available online – then feel free to consult the CasinoNow table and pick your own preferred casino where you will play blackjack.

Play the Blackjack Games with the Highest RTP Rates

When it comes to blackjack probability, the RTP rate is one of the most important aspects. The abbreviation stands for Return to Player and, in layman’s terms, it explains just how big a percentage of the total bets that the game receives will be paid out to the players. So, if a blackjack’s game’s RTP is hypothetically 99% – it means that for every $100 that you wager, you will get $99 paid out as winnings, on average. Here’s our CasinoNow table of some of the blackjack games with the highest RTP rates that you can play in Canadian casinos:

Blackjack with High RTP Key Feature Software RTP
Double exposure blackjack The croupier has both cards facing up Play’n Go 99.33%
Single Deck Blackjack There’s only one deck in play Betsoft 99.75%
European Blackjack The croupier waits for the player to make move before getting 2nd card Play’n Go 99.60%
Blackjack Surrender You can surrender and get half your wager back Playtech 99.62%
Super 7 Blackjack You can make an extra side-bet Betsoft 99.59%

As you can see, the odds and probabilities tend to vary quite a bit depending on the rules of the particular blackjack game. If you want to play some of the biggest RTP blackjack games with the biggest blackjack odds payout rates – then pick any one of the games above and use one of the special rules to your advantage.

Guide to Determining the Odds of Winning in Blackjack

Many players make the mistake of going completely blind when playing blackjack. They believe that it’s all about luck and that the more you risk, the more you stand to gain. Well, aside from the incidence of a tremendously lucky shot, if you don’t play your cards right, you will lose.

There are ways in which you can determine your odds of winning a hand in blackjack – and ways in which you can improve your odds of winning in the long run. The return to player rate can be influenced positively or negatively depending on the choices that you make on the blackjack table.

If you want to improve your blackjack odds of winning, then there are several things that you need to do. Some of the factors that will directly influence the overall win-rate are the specific quirks and rules of the particular blackjack game, the number of decks that are used by the dealer, the mathematical prognosis of various outcomes, the ability to count cards, and more.

Right off the bat, we suggest that you pick an optimal blackjack strategy – one that improves your odds of winning, and that decreases the casino’s edge – and that you stick with it. There will always be times when the game will influence you to make a wrong decision – but it’s best if you keep your cool and play your strategy out steadily. You can read all about the blackjack statistics below.

Odds and Probability Explained

If you want to get good at blackjack, then you will need to learn a bit of math – specifically, the probability theory. There’s no way around it. The main idea behind this concept can be explained by the probability formula – the number of ways divided by the number of possible events. You can immediately see how easily this formula can be implemented in the game of blackjack.

For example, if the sum of the cards that you have in blackjack is 11 or less – then it means that the probability of going bust for the next card is 0%, as there is no way in which you can top 21 with one additional card. So, it would make no sense whatsoever for you to stand at 11 as you can’t lose on your next turn.

On the other hand, if the sum of your cards is 12, 13, or 14, for example, then the odds of going bust when you draw your next card are steadily increasing at 31%, 39%, and 56%, respectively. And the higher up you go, closer to 21, the odds of going bust will steadily increase, in turn. If you have 19 as the sum of your cards, then the odds of going bust for the next turn are 85%. Finally, if you have 20 as the sum of your cards, then the odds of going bust for the next turn are 95% – and this is in no way a smart bet to make, even though you have a small 5% chance to draw an ace on the next turn and hit the blackjack.

The probability theory may seem simple – and that’s because it really is simple. You will need to learn certain probability rates and percentages and keep them in your mind as you play – make it a habit to consult the blackjack odds sheet and to memorize it through and through. This will dramatically improve your odds of winning at blackjack in the long run – and this is a strategical choice that many (most) players fail to implement in their game.

Defining RTP and House Edge

The terms “RTP” and “house edge” are very important for everyone involved in gambling. In fact, the two terms are actually the two sides of the same coin. The term “house edge” pertains to the mathematical edge that the casino will have over the player in any hand. The fact that the casino always has an edge over the player shouldn’t surprise – it’s just how the system is designed so that the house will make money in the long run, even though it will pay players out as well.

The house edge is measured in percentages. We can take the example of, say, double exposure blackjack, with a house edge of 0.67%. What this means is that the casino has an edge of 0.64% over the player. This may not show in several runs – but it will definitely show in the long run.

As for the Return to Player rate, if you consult our CasinoNow table for the best blackjack games in Canada above, then you will see that the RTP rate is set at 99.33%. If you add up the RTP rate and the house edge percentages, you will get a nice, rounded 100%. RTP stands for how big a percentage of the player’s bets will the casino pay out as winnings. Be sure to memorize these terms as knowledge of this simple concept of RTP and house edge and how they interrelate can have a profound effect on your blackjack experience.

Rule Variations and How they Influence the House Edge

As we’ve mentioned before, blackjack probability can be heavily influenced by the rule variations of the particular blackjack game. And many variations should be considered – the number of decks used, the payout rate when hitting blackjack, whether you have the option to surrender, whether the dealer will hit or stand on a soft 17, and others.

For example, if you have the option to surrender and get half your bet back – then the house edge will decrease by 0.08%. This may not seem like an awful lot – but you should remember that the big percentages are comprised of the sum of the smaller percentages.

The number of decks used also has a big influence on the house edge, as well. If one eight decks are used, then the house edge will commensurately increase for 0.64%. If the dealer is forced to hit on a soft 18, then the house edge goes up for 0.21%.

Certain blackjack variations pay out 3:2 when you hit blackjack. There are other variations, however, that pay out 6:5. If the latter is the case, then the house edge gets increased by 1.30%, which is not a negligible increase at all. As you can see, rule variations have an impact on the house edge and RTP rates of each blackjack game.

How to Beat the Casino House Odds

The basic strategies and probability theory knowledge will help you improve the profitability of your blackjack gaming experience. However, what will decrease the house edge even further is learning the skill to count cards. Counting cards pertains to the practice and skill of memorizing the cards that have already passed on the table. Notably, the bigger the number of decks that are used – the harder the card counting strategy becomes – and things are exacerbated if the dealer picks up the habit of shuffling the cards after every round.

But in regular instances, you can make great use of your skill to count cards. There are memory systems that you can use for this purpose – you don’t need to have godlike intelligence to memorize cards. However, you will need to spend time practicing the memorization of cards – especially in high-pressure scenarios like a real blackjack game –to learn the art of counting cards.

The prize of learning this valuable skill is ascertaining the low-value to high-value card ration as the game progresses. This will help you make better tactical decisions in the short run and it will increase the overall RTP rate for any given blackjack round.

Odds vs. Dealer Up Card

If you have ever played blackjack, then you know by now that the dealer starts the game with two cards. One of them is facing up – and is visible to everyone – and the other one is facing down and is visible to no one. So, our CasinoNow experts have created a table for you to see the probabilities of a positive outcome for the player depending on the quality of the dealer’s visible card.

In the left column, there’s the particular card that the dealer will have facing up. The second column gives you a probability in percentages of the dealer going overboard and busting out. Finally, in the third column, you have the player advantage percentages depending on the up-facing dealer card. As you can see, the second and third columns start low, then go higher up, and then they taper off once again – and the player advantages goes in the negative from 9 and above.

Dealer’s Up CardDealer Odds of BustingPlayer Advantage Percentage
2 points35.30%9.8%
3 points37.56%13.4%
4 points40.28%18.0%
5 points42.89%23.2%
6 points42.08%23.9%
7 points25.99%14.3%
8 points23.86%5.4%
9 points23.34%-4.3%
10, J, Q, K21.43%-16.9%
A11.65%-16.0%

By implementing this knowledge and information of the probability theory – you will be able to make much better decisions when progressing in any given game of blackjack – and you will increase the overall RTP rate even more.

Blackjack Odds of Busting While Taking a Hit

And here we have a list of blackjack odds that will be of great assistance to you should you decide to implement it. The list consists of two categories – total hand value and probability of going bust.

  • 21 points – 100%
  • 20 points – 92%
  • 19 points – 85%
  • 18 points – 77%
  • 17 points – 69%
  • 16 points – 62%
  • 15 points – 58%
  • 14 points – 56%
  • 13 points – 39%
  • 12 points – 31%
  • 11 points or less – 0%

It goes without saying that if the hand value is 11 or less – then there is a 0% chance of going bust on the next turn, as we have mentioned this in one of the previous sections, as well. Things start to heat up from 12 and upwards to 21. If there’s a 0% chance to go bust with 11 or less, then there is a 100% to go bust with 21. This is not even a move that you can make – as the round ends if you hit 21 and you either win or you draw – but you never lose.

Logically, the odds of going bust are steadily increasing as your total hand value increases. For 14, you will have a 56% chance of going bust on the next hit. For 18, you will have a 77% chance of going bust. So, by knowing the probabilities of going bust for your next hit with each card.

Blackjack Odds: Deck and Value Dependence

Two important categories have a big influence on the outcome of each blackjack round. The first one is the number of card decks used and the second is the card value and how it determines the probabilities and potential outcomes.

The higher the number of card decks used, the higher the house edge gets. As for the value of your cards – there are mathematical probabilities that you can use to gauge the odds of having a certain card value with random two cards – for each round. And these two important subjects are what we will talk about in the following section.

House Advantage with Multiple Number of Decks

The number of decks that the dealer uses for every game of blackjack is important in the sense that it influences the house edge. The bigger the number of decks that are used, the higher the house edge becomes.

For example, if the number of decks that are used is only 1, the house advantage is set at only 0.04%. And this is why it gets increasingly more difficult to find online blackjack games in Canadian casinos where only one deck is being used. The casinos are privy to the fact that there is more money to be taken if more decks are used.

Conversely, if 8 card decks are used, then the house edge rises to 0.70%. Also, this makes card counting next to impossible – as you will have to memorize a much greater number of cards in this instance. As a rule of thumb, remember to look for the blackjack games where the dealers use a smaller number of card decks – at best, just one.

Two Card Frequency Odds

Then there are the odds of having a certain card value for any random two cards that you’re dealt at the beginning of each blackjack game. It’s practical to separate the card values into a few bigger categories: the natural 21 blackjack category, the hard standing category, the decision hands category, and the no bust category.

The odds of getting a natural 21 blackjack right at the get-go are mathematically set at 4.8%. The odds of getting card value in the hard standing category (17-20) are 30%. The odds of getting card value in the decision hands (2-16) are 38.7%. Finally, the odds of hitting a no bust draw are set at 26.5%.

If you know the percentages and probabilities when it comes to the first two cards that are dealt to you by the dealer, then you will have a lot easier time in determining the potential outcomes of each individual round of blackjack. And this, in turn, will result in a higher incidence of profitable outcomes as opposed to losing outcomes. This is all a part of the grand blackjack strategy that can dramatically improve your blackjack experience should you implement it properly at the right time.

Probability Edge for Each Card Removed from Deck

And naturally, the value of the removed cards also influences the big picture. This is where your card counting prowess comes into play. And the removal of different cards from the deck will logically have a different effect on the probability edge for the rest of the game.

Our CasinoNow experts have created a list for you that will help you determine the blackjack odds card removal influence on the rest of the game.

  • 2 points – (0.40%)
  • 3 points – (0.43%)
  • 4 points – (0.52%)
  • 5 points – (0.67%)
  • 6 points – (0.45%)
  • 7 points – (0.30%)
  • 8 points – (0.01%)
  • 9 points – (-0.15%)
  • 10 points – (-0.51%)
  • Jack Card – (-0.51%)
  • Queen Card – (-0.51%)
  • King Card – (-0.51%)
  • Ace Card – (-0.59%)

As you can see, the removal of the higher value cards will have a negative effect on the game’s potential outcome in your favor. And vice versa – if the lower value cards are removed from the deck in play, then it means that the game’s potential outcome will be influenced in a positive way for the player.

By combining this information with the card counting data, you will have developed a powerful arsenal of tools and techniques to determine whether the game’s outcome will be a positive one or a negative one. Remember to keep your wits about you as it’s very easy to get carried away with the momentum of the game and to make the wrong decisions regarding the probability edge for each card removed from the deck.

Dealer Final Hand Probability Odds

Lastly, we have the analysis of the dealer’s final hand and the probabilities regarding it. This too can be an important statistic in determining the final outcome of the blackjack round. Our CasinoNow experts have determined the probability of getting a certain hand value in the last card for the dealer – and they have formed the hand values in a few broader categories: the natural blackjack, the 21 with more than two hands, 19, 18 and 17, and non-bust (less than 21) and bust (more than 21).

  • Natural Blackjack – 4.82%
  • 21 (more than 2 cards) – 7.36%
  • 20 points – 17.58%
  • 19 points – 13.48%
  • 18 points – 13.81%
  • 17 points – 14.58%
  • Non-Bust (less than 21) – 71.63%
  • Bust (more than 21) – 28.37%

By consulting and memorizing the list above, you will have a pretty strong inkling on what the dealer’s final card may be based on the combination of various factors that you have learned about in this article – and on the fact of the dealer’s final hand probability odds.

Using Blackjack Odds Strategy will be a Game Changer

So, we have come to the end of this comprehensive review of the blackjack odds – the probability, RTP, and house edge. By now you have grasped the importance of knowing what these terms are all about and how this knowledge can help you in making better choices when playing blackjack.

And if you want to play online blackjack in Canada – then feel free to consult our CasinoNow lists of some of the best casinos in Canada that feature the game of blackjack – for real money, or for free. Be sure to use all the strategies and probability theories that we have talked extensively about in this article – as this will dramatically improve your blackjack odds of winning. We hope that the blackjack odds strategies will be used by more players in the future.

Blackjack odds FAQ

Does the “surrender” option influence the house edge?

Yes, it does, and we have already mentioned this fact in the review above. It’s always better for the player to have this option as it means that he or she will get half of their bet back when surrendering. If this option is non-existent in the particular version of blackjack, then the house edge will increase by 0.08%.

How to determine the best blackjack variation?

We would say that the way to do this is to find the game with the biggest RTP rate – and conversely, with the lowest house edge. Use all the knowledge that you have learned in our review to find the blackjack games with the highest RTP – and then implement the strategies that you have learned, and this will help you win more often than ever before.

When should I hit or stand?

There are different rules in different scenarios when it comes to hitting and standing. The golden rule here is that the lower your card value – it becomes more profitable to hit. And vice versa, the higher the card value, it becomes a lot more profitable to stand.

Is online blackjack rigged?

That’s a tough one. There are known instances when various blackjack versions have been proven to be rigged – in the so-called rogue casinos. However, all of the casinos in Canada that are featured on our CasinoNow lists are completely legit – and you will have no worries whatsoever about the game of blackjack being rigged in any way, shape or form.

About the author

James Taylor

James Taylor

James Taylor is the chief editor of CasinoNow Canada Portal. This is the professional name of our bilingual go-to guy who adds value to all our work. He has been working as editor-in-chief at CasionNow Canada since 2018. Previously, he studied at the University of Quebec in Montreal and worked in market research companies.

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